Analisis peramalan kebutuhan energi listrik sektor industri di Jawa Timur dengan metode regresi linear

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Rohmanita Duanaputri Sulistyowati Sulistyowati Putra Aulia Insani

Abstract

Abstrak 


Pada kehidupan sekarang maupun akan datang, energi listrik menjadi kebutuhan pokok masyarakat. Kebutuhan energi listrik selalu mengalami peningkatan, diikuti meningkatnya pertumbuhan penduduk. Permasalahan akan muncul apabila kebutuhan energi listrik tidak diperkirakan. Maka perlu dilakukan peramalan kebutuhan energi listrik untuk memprediksikan ketersediaan energi listrik di masa mendatang. Pada penelitian ini, dilakukan peramalan kebutuhan energi listrik menggunakan metode regresi linier pada sektor industri di Jawa Timur untuk tahun 2023-2027. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan prediksi dan MAPE (2009-2021), didapatkan metode regresi linier masih baik dan layak digunakan menurut standar MAPE. Kemudian dibandingkan hasil prediksi dan MAPE (2010-2020) antara metode regresi linear dengan metode time series pada penelitian sebelumnya, didapatkan metode time series menghasilkan prediksi dan MAPE lebih baik dibanding metode regresi linier pada pelanggan listrik, sedangkan pada daya tersambung, energi listrik terjual, dan pendapatan penjualan energi listrik didapatkan metode regresi linier menghasilkan prediksi dan MAPE lebih baik dibanding metode time series. Tetapi, penulis menghitung peramalan kebutuhan energi listrik pada sektor industri di Jawa Timur (2023-2027) hanya menggunakan metode regresi linier. Sehingga dihasilkan akan terjadi kenaikan setiap tahun dengan rata-rata untuk pelanggan listrik sebesar 5.264 pelanggan, daya tersambung sebesar 328,49 MVA, energi listrik terjual sebesar 580,64 GWh, dan pendapatan penjualan energi listrik sebesar 1.065.266,21 Juta Rupiah. Menurut hasil tersebut, maka pasokan energi listrik harus tercukupi dengan merencanakan pengembangan atau penambahan kapasitas pembangkit listrik.


Abstract


In present and future life, electrical energy becomes basic needs of community. Electrical energy needs always increased, followed by increased population growth. Problem will appear if electrical energy needs is not expected. Therefore, it is necessary to forecast electrical energy needs to predict the availability of electrical energy in future. In this study, calculation of forecasting electrical energy needs using linear regression methods in industrial sector in East Java for 2023-2027. Based on calculation results of prediction and MAPE (2009-2021), it is obtained linear regression method is still good and worthy of use according to MAPE standard. Then comparison results of prediction and MAPE (2010-2020) between linear regression method with time series method in previous study, it was obtained that time series method produced predictive and MAPE is better than linear regression methods on electricity customers, while in power connected, electric energy sold, and earnings of electrical energy sales obtained linear regression method produces predictive and MAPE better than time series method. However, authors calculation of electrical energy needs in industrial sector in East Java (2023-2027) only using linear regression methods. So there will be increase every year with average for electricity customers of 5,264 customers, power connected of 328.49 MVA, electric energy sold of 580.64 GWh, and earnings of electrical energy sales of 1,065,266.21 million rupiah. According to results, supply of electrical energy should be fulfilled by planning development or additional power plant capacity.

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DUANAPUTRI, Rohmanita; SULISTYOWATI, Sulistyowati; INSANI, Putra Aulia. Analisis peramalan kebutuhan energi listrik sektor industri di Jawa Timur dengan metode regresi linear. JURNAL ELTEK, [S.l.], v. 20, n. 2, p. 50-60, oct. 2022. ISSN 2355-0740. Available at: <https://eltek.polinema.ac.id/index.php/eltek/article/view/352>. Date accessed: 09 dec. 2022. doi: https://doi.org/10.33795/eltek.v20i2.352.
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